Understanding the Impacts of Rainfall Variability on Natural Forage–Livestock Dynamics in Arid and Semi-Arid Environment

Abstract

Arid and semi-arid environments are characterized by highly variable and unpredictable rainfall patterns, which significantly affect the structure and function of natural ecosystems. Understanding the interconnected relationship between climate variability, forage availability, and livestock dynamics in these regions is crucial to ensure sustainable management. This study provides novel insights into the effects of rainfall variability on natural forage resources and livestock populations in Botswana. In this arid region, traditional livestock farming remains a key economic and food security pillar. By employing a mathematical model based on plant–herbivore interactions, this article quantitatively evaluates the impact of changes in rainfall timing and intensity on forage biomass and, subsequently, livestock populations. A robust analysis of critical threshold values for ecosystem sustainability is possible when real-world climate data are incorporated. This study examines the effects of harvesting and rainfall variability on livestock dynamics across different locations in Botswana. Delayed rainfall leads to a sharp decline in livestock, while Sehitlwa sees biomass loss without a notable reduction in herd size. In Kgagodi, for example, livestock numbers decline by 37% without harvesting, but they remain stable with controlled harvesting. Conversely, Letlhakeng experiences a 6% increase in livestock numbers despite delayed rainfall, which results in a biomass decline. Both Mabutsane and Letlhakeng maintain stable livestock numbers. The findings confirm that early and intense rainfall enhances livestock productivity, while delayed or reduced rainfall leads to population decline, aligning with observed trends in historical data. Additionally, the study underscores the potential of adaptive livestock harvesting strategies as a viable approach to mitigating climate-related risks in grazing systems. As this work integrates theoretical modeling with empirical climate data, it contributes to understanding arid land dynamics, providing a predictive method for assessing ecosystem responses to climate variability. These insights are invaluable for policymakers, conservationists, and local farmers seeking sustainable livestock management practices in the face of changing climatic conditions.