Dynamical modeling of Salmonellosis in humans and dairy cattle with temperature and pH effects.

Abstract

Approximately 20 million cases and 0.15 million human fatalities worldwide each year are caused by Salmonellosis. A mechanistic compartmental model based on ordinary differential equations is proposed to evaluate the effects of temperature and pH on the transmission dynamics of Salmonellosis. The transmission potential of the disease in areas with temperature and pH stresses is examined. The next-generation matrix method is applied to compute the temperature-pH-dependent reproduction number ℛPT. The dynamical regimes of the system are examined using Lyapunov stability theory and backward bifurcation analysis. The uncertainty and global sensitivity analysis are examined using the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) and Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC) methods. The numerical simulations of the proposed model under favorable and unfavorable temperatures are performed with a 95% confidence interval (CI) for the reliability assessment of the model parameters. The analysis shows that the ingestion rates of Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica serovar Typhimurium bacteria in humans and dairy cattle, human-to-human transmission rate, cattle-to-cattle transmission rate, human shedding rate, dairy cattle shedding rate, and the rate of producing contaminated dairy products are directly proportional to the number of infected humans and infected dairy cattle. The temperature ranges of 100C−200C and 300C−400C and pHs greater than 3.8 have a significant effect on the dynamics of Salmonellosis. In order to eliminate Salmonellosis, the study recommends treating natural water bodies using the recommended chemical disinfectants during summer seasons and in areas with temperature ranges of 100C−200C, cooking food at the hottest temperatures, and storing food at the lowest temperatures for all pHs.